CINNCINATI (-3) over Seattle
Seattle is not good this year. They’re just not. Their two wins have come against two of the five worst teams in football, and they’ve looked anything but impressive in both. On the flip side, Cincy is playing as well as anyone outside of New England. Sure the annual Marvin Lewis first round exit will come down the road, but for now they look like world beaters. And sure Andy Dalton is not a top ten quarterback. But when he has all the time in the world to throw and a group of weapons as talented as Green, Jones, Eifert, Bernard, and even the struggling Hill, he can sit back there and pick teams apart. I’m a huge fan of this Bengals team right now. Big, statement win from them at home this week.
P.S. I’m very aware of how similar this situation is to when the Patriots kicked their teeth in last year, but this is a different Bengals team. Definitely not different when we get to the playoffs, but different right now.
St. Louis (+9) over GREEN BAY
Great defense, great running game, and a line that’s just a few points too high. Gurley, who already looks like an elite running back talent, drastically changes this teams potential. He’s an eight men in the box running back already, and if you don’t key your entire defense towards him he will tear you apart run after run after run. It’s not hard to imagine the Rams dominating time of possession, and if they can limit Rodgers to around 24-27 points, they’ll cover this number.
Washington (+7.5) over ATLANTA
I love Atlanta. Love their offense, love Julio and Devonta, love their balance, love the way that Dan Quinn has that defense playing, love all of it. But this Washington team is not bad, and there’s a ton of value in getting over a touchdown with them. This game screams letdown game for Atlanta. SCREAMS IT. Playing very well, coming off a blowout victory, and likely looking ahead to an intense rivalry game on a short week as they head to New Orleans on Thursday. Just a claaaassic letdown game scenario. Take the points with Washington, you’re not gonna find better underdog value than that this week.
TENNESSEE (+1.5) over Buffalo
After a few solid weeks to start the season and coming off a bye, Wisenhunt will have some tricks up his sleeve with Marriota. Based off of the performances of Indy and Miami, nothing about this Buffalo defense looks that impressive. And with McCoy and Williams, I can’t see Buffalo controlling the run game. Love the home dog here.
Cleveland (+6.5) over BALTIMORE
Nothing weirder than a Cleveland-Baltimore game. Just the funniest rivalry in the NFL. For as much as the Ravens have dominated this rivalry, every game seems to be close. And with Baltimore clearly in the midst of a downswing, and Cleveland, for all their flaws, playing better than they have in recent years, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a little upset action here. I don’t necessarily believe in Josh McCown, but he’ll hit a few big plays. And on the flip side, the Steve Smith injury has left Joe Flacco with quite possibly the worst receiving corps in the league. I couldn’t be more confident in the idea of this game coming down to a field goal… that’s an absolute lock. Take the points.
KANSAS CITY (-9) over Chicago
Hate this game. Just an absolute stay-away from a gambling standpoint unless you tease it. I don’t trust Chicago at all, and I think Kansas City is better than their record suggests. Total stayaway though.
New Orleans (+5) over PHILADELPHIA
Hate both of these teams. Probably a stayaway, but if anything here just take the points. I actually think the New Orleans offense might do some things during the two games C.J. Spiller stays healthy for. Ingram has played well, and if Spiller is there to compliment him, Brees has some talent to work in that short passing game. Philadelphia is a train wreck right now, and these Chip-to-USC rumors this morning won’t help. If Sam Bradford can show me two completions over 15 yards I’ll consider laying over a field goal with them. For now, take the points.
JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Tampa Bay
BORTLES. WINSTON. It’s the Matchup for Florida Supremecy. It’s actually hilarious how similar these teams are. Underwhelming defensively-oriented coaches. Young Quarterbacks who will never live up to their draft position. Competent defenses that are at the mercy of their young quarterbacks. It’s pretty great. I like the Jags in this game because 1) you know Winston will turn it over twice at a minimum, and 2) they should have won that Colts game, and a win keeps them in that dogshit AFC South race.
Arizona (-3) over DETROIT
Devastating loss for the Lions last week, and almost impossible to see them bouncing back against a significantly better Cardinals team on a short week. Arians will have the Cardinals ready to play after getting trampled by Gurley last week. They’ll get right back on the blowout track here. Big win for Arizona.
OAKLAND (+5) over Denver
Upset special here. Not only do I love getting over a field goal at home with them, I love the outright win. As great as Cooper has been so far, this is the next step game for him. Monster performance against an elite secondary, puts himself in that top flight receiver conversation.
New England (-9.5) over DALLAS
I don’t care who the opponent is or what the line is, I’m not betting against the Patriots until they show any signs of letting up. Add in that 1) They are fresh off a bye, 2) Brady will score as many Fuck You points as he possibly can after the Greg Hardy comments this week, and 3) Brandon Weeden is the opposing quarterback. I mean this is going to be a massacre. Not quite the massacre that next week’s Pats-Colts game will be, but a massacre nonetheless. Fuck you Greg Hardy.
NY GIANTS (-7) over San Francisco
On the flip side… I don’t care who the opponent is or what the line is, I’m not betting on Colin Kaepernick until he shows signs of life. He’s an absolute headcase right now, and as well as their defense played the Packers last week, no amount of points will even tempt me to take the Niners on the road. Oh and the Giants are also quietly a top seven team that, save for about four total minutes this season, has led every game and should be 4 and 0. Yes I’m biased, but it’s true. Obviously you can’t discount those two blown games, but if you look at the way they’ve bounced back, I can’t find more than five teams I would be afraid to play right now. Easy cover, and there’s not a thing in the world you can tell me that will prevent me from teasing the Giants and Pats every week until that Week 10 Matchup.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO
San Diego is just gonna be that team that plays a million close games this season. They can score with anyone, but their inability to make big stops or pull away from teams has resulted in three tight games and one blowout loss. On the other side, Vick was competent in place of Big Ben last week. On an offense already loaded wih talent, he’ll get added reinforcements in the form of Martavis Bryant this week, with whom he had great chemistry in the preseason. Martavis takes the spot of Heyward-Bey, and adds a completely new dimension to the passing game not just on deep balls, but in the redzone with that 6’5″ frame. Love the Steelers to not only cover, but steal this game outright on the road.
All The Picks:
Last Week: 10 – 5
Season: 38 – 24 – 1